We live in a world where progress, regrettably, depends on funding.
There can be no better example of this than the recent 'X' Prize, which many people were discussing at the conference last week with relation to the recent NASA mission. For decades a viable commercial reusable replacement for the space shuttle has been a dream. The introduction of a $10m reward for the first non-government team to create such a craft fuelled rapid development, and now the dream is a reality.
Already Richard Branson, a long time fan of mine I believe, has made moves to become the first commercial operator in this field, or should I say 'this space'. His companies fortune supporting such a venture is another example of funding being required to drive back the frontiers of science and human achievement. And what's the benefit for him? Well, the thousands of people that are estimated to be egar to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars (or euros, given time) on a trip into space.
And so, as this small step of tourism begins, our eyes are naturally drawn to the next giant leap of the rich-mans hankering, as this will undoubtedly show the way of future development. The first thing that comes to mind is of course Mars. However this is really a government inspired goal. Getting there is a great show of a countries might and technology. A great indication of mankinds progression through it's social future-history. And of course the first stage of the human takeover of the galaxy. But let's face it - where's the fun in it?
This is what future scientific endeavour will ultimately be driven by. Individuals (that is - rich individuals) whims and fancies. So I favour not Mars as the future... but the moon. Yes, we've all gazed up at it... we all grew up watching films about travelling there... and we all, including the rich men of the world, have wondered just how fun it would be to live there.
Don't think I mean Moon-colonisation... that's not fun. Vacations on the Moon. This is the inevitable next step. This is where the next 'X prize' (The Y Prize?) will take us. Ultra-Rich moon tourists, willing to spend millions for a week on Luna. Going for a Moon Walk, and dipping their feet in the Sea-Of-Tranquillity (although not literally of course - it's not a real Sea, there's no water, and if they took their suits off they'd die).
Obviously there'd need to be staff on hand, to cater for our Extra-Terrestrial Tourists. Given that it would not be economically viable to fly them up and down on a regular basis, I would anticipate their contracts lasting several years at a time. In many ways, an excellent opportunity for the less wealthy to experience space travel AND get paid. Thus these people would be the first, and only permanent dwellers off world. Not scientists, or the like - remember: No fun equals no funding.
So I can confidently predict, the first people to live on the moon will be... caterers.